Strategic · Forward View
Scenarios & Risks
Four-scenario framework for Brazil 2026–2030, with UAE strategic posture.
What Would Change My View
Three trigger events that would force a reassessment of scenario likelihoods:
1.
CEPA signed before October→ Upgrade South American Gateway
2.
Second US tariff tranche imposed (post-Jul 24)→ Upgrade Inward Turn
3.
Contested election result→ Immediate review of all likelihoods
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